01/23/2026
Solar activity reached moderate levels with two M-class flares
earlier this week.
ÿ
The first flares occurred on January 21 in regions 4345 and 4349.
Region 4345 continued to show development, as well as region 4342.
Region 4341 was a main contributor to the C-level activity of the
day, including a larger C-class flare on January 21. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1/R2, minor/moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-strong) on
January 24, primarily due to the magnetic potential of Regions 4341,
4342 and 4345.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
influence transitioning into a high-speed stream paradigm, with the interplanetary magnetic field returned to largely enhanced
background levels. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from about
800 km/s to 575 km/s at the end of the day. Phi angle remained in
the positive solar sector (away from the Sun), indicating the
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) dominant influence over the
period. Solar wind parameters near Earth are expected to be
dominated by the CH HSS conditions in the next three days.
ÿ
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach (G1-Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 29 and unsettled to active levels on January
27 and 28, then 30 and 31, and then from February 4 to 11.ÿ All
enhancements in activity are due to the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.ÿ The remainder
of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 22, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
"A combination of favorable circumstances contributed to the
northern lights on the night of January 19-20 becoming one of the
main stories in the media in the following days. In particular, much
of Europe enjoyed very favorable weather conditions thanks to an
extensive high-pressure system, the center of which slowly moved
southward from Russia across Ukraine, the Black Sea, and Turkey to
the Middle East. In its western part, a dry, cold wind blew from the
south. As a result, the aurora borealis was observed as far south as
southern Europe, for example in southern France, northern Italy, and
Romania.
"Before the disturbance, a sunspot group AR4341, had been gradually
growing. Its magnetic configuration became increasingly complex,
while to the west and south of it lay the extensive coronal hole No.
15. Then, in a position near the center of the solar disk, very
favorable for the Earth to be hit by solar wind, a proton flare with
the highest concentration and energy of protons in the last 36 years
was observed. The beginning of the phenomenon was registered on
January 18 at 1727 UT, with a maximum at 1809 UT and an end at 1851
UT.
"A very fast particle ejection (CME) began on January 18 at 1748 UT,
lasted 5 hours, while was best observed around 1812 UT. The particle
flow velocity was extreme, ranging from 2900 up to 3500 km/s.
Therefore, the geomagnetic disturbance did not begin two to three
days after the flare, as is usual, but the very next day - January
19. The aurora borealis was visible for most of the night from
January 19 to 20, and even at mid-latitudes it had not only the
usual red color, but also, exceptionally, green.
"The G4 geomagnetic disturbance lasted 15 hours and was followed by
a G3 disturbance lasting 18 hours. The occurrence of numerous
inhomogeneities in the ionosphere caused large and variable
attenuation. On the other hand, the values of the critical
frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer during the daytime in
mid-latitudes on January 19 and 20 were above average. The decline,
typical for the end of the disruption, did not occur until January
21.
"Solar activity at the end of December indicated that the maximum of
the eleven-year cycle is not yet over and will extend from 2024-2025
into part of 2026. During the rest of January, solar activity will
decline only very slowly, with a more significant decline occurring
after the beginning of February, when another longer geomagnetic
disturbance can be expected."
The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 24 to 30 is 5, 5, 5, 10,
15, 25, and 12, with a mean of 11.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index is
2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 3.14.ÿ 10.7 centimeter flux
is 180, 175, 170, 165, 160, 165, and 165, with a mean of 168.6.
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,
http://k9la.us/[4] .
Also, check this:
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]
"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ
[1]
http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2]
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3]
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4]
http://k9la.us/
[5]
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS